Poker and Positive Expected Value
Expectation or expected value in the poker sense refers to the amount you anticipate to lose or gain on average for a certain action, whether it’s a hand or a bet. With that said, the term can be applied to other fields and subjects other than poker, such as a full career, an hourly rate, and so on. At any rate, expected value has a lot to do with poker in the mathematical sense. Sure, it’s arguable that execution and people skills are much more important than mathematical skills when playing high-stakes, expert poker; however, regardless of that point, all poker decisions remain mathematical, and that’s an indisputable fact.
Indicators of Expected Value
Whenever you play at poker stars with a bet on stake, each and every one of the circumstances and decisions made during that game have a certain value. Every now and then, this value becomes quite apparent to the players themselves. More to the point, let’s suppose you were having a one-on-one poker match and your opponent bets all-in into you once you’ve acquired the nut hand. It’s during this situation that you can accurately judge what your calling expectation is merely by counting the pot. Then again, these events are quite infrequent and rare.
Typically, poker players tend to think in terms of generalities, oversimplifications, and sweeping ideas so that their brains aren’t constantly bombarded by trivial and irrelevant details. For instance, Texas Holdem players have general expectations whenever they’re dealt AA on the dealer butter. On the other hand, you can get the opportunity to make specific, detailed estimations as well, such as during the instances when you’re dealt AA on the button while playing $20/$40 and one of your opponents raises first to act and everybody else folds to you and you possess two tight players in the blinds behind you; your expected value that is quite specific, if only for the fact that so many factors surrounding that event have many indicators to clue you in on the answer, so to speak.
Best Expectations
Regardless of whether or not it’s actually acknowledged, the mathematics behind these decisions still exists. In fact, it’s always there regardless if you’re aware of it or not. It’s changeable, controllable variable that can be influenced to be more (or less) in your favor, but it never does disappear all of a sudden. It’s the one constant in all www.PokerStars.it decisions. Nevertheless, in poker, it’s quite easy to fall in the trap of doing the right actions for the wrong reasons. It’s also the reason why looking at the outcomes of individual hands is mostly an exercise in futility.
The main point that’s being put across here is the fact that the correct actions are always backed by the best expectation. For instance, if you reraise two opponents with seventy-two offsuit before the flop, and you were able to land a huge pot from KK and A2 when the flop comes 227, it is still the wrong action because the action has a negative expectation or value. Moreover, how you play can affect the expectation in your hands, and making a negative expectation into less of a negative one is a positive expectation unto itself. The main challenge that a poker player has to meet is discerning positive expectations, cultivating such situations, and reducing the occurrences of negative expectation.